President Bush said yesterday to a national convention of the American Legion in Reno, Nevada that if Israel’s arch-foe Iran were to get nuclear weapons, the entire Middle East would be “under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust.”
Bush also repeated accusations that Iran was materializing instability in Iraq by supplying weapons and training fighters. It seems someone is really trying to build a case with the American public for a war with Iran.
My issue with President Bush’s remarks is that they are misleading and incredibly short-sighted.
First off, even if Iran were to get nuclear weapons, possessing does not equal usage. Of all the countries around the world with nuclear weapons, only one has actually used them (outside of a testing capacity): the United States. That means that Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel and South Africa (before voluntarily disarming) have never used them on another country. So where does Bush’s inherent rationale that Iran would use them if they had them come from?
Secondly, and this ties in with my previous point, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has not called for Israel to be “wiped off the map” as reported in U.S. media. Contrary to propaganda popular belief, that remark was never made. It should be noted that the Bush Administration has repeatedly used this remark — falsely — as a basis for many of their threats against Iran.
Finally, Bush’s remarks about an impending nuclear holocaust in the Middle East should Iran get nuclear weapons are far less from what a real-life scenario would entail. Granted, Bush is probably correct that if one nuclear weapon were to go off the region would be set ablaze with hellfire and radiation. However, it’s not likely to remain contained to that region. Bush and his cronies need to read up a little on the IR concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which is the best nuclear weapon deterrent. Under this MAD premise, one nation setting off nukes means retaliation from other nuke states leading to the destruction of everyone. Thus, were Iran to nuke Israel, Israel and the United States would surely nuke back. As a result of the United States nuking Iran, Russia or China would likely get involved, and the downward spiral goes ever deeper. The lesson from all this: Iran knows that nuking another country will only get itself destroyed, so it’s not going to do it.
It’s unfortunate that the government uses such deliberate manipulation of information to pursue its own secretive agendas (read: attacking Iran). It is extraordinarily unlikely that Iran would ever launch a first-strike nuclear weapon against Israel. Rather, the more plausible explanation is that Iran is seeking to acquire a nuclear weapon so that it can use MAD as a deterrent against countries seeking to nuke it.